US CPI and Gold: inflation impact on XAUUSD
Track US Headline and Core inflation from official data, see whether price pressure is rising or cooling, and review how gold behaved in each release month.
Latest reference month Sep 2026 · Released monthly 08:30 ET · Source: BLS
This month in 30 seconds · Sep 2026
- Inflation direction
- Headline inflation rose to 3.7% from 3.4%. Prices are accelerating.
- Underlying trend (Core)
- Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is 2.6%, higher than last month. This is the measure the Federal Reserve watches most closely.
- What it usually means for gold
- Accelerating inflation can keep rate expectations elevated and support the dollar around the release, a short term headwind for gold. Over longer horizons, persistent inflation can support demand for gold.
- How gold actually moved
- Gold closed the release month down 1.3%. Many other drivers act within a month, so this is context, not cause.
Context for bias only. Not a trade signal.
Headline CPI y/y
3.7%
prior 3.4%
Core CPI y/y
2.6%
prior 2.4%
Headline m/m (NSA)
+0.6%
Core +0.4%
Gold in release month
-1.3%
XAUUSD open to close
Inflation trend, 3 years
Year over year change. The dashed line marks the Federal Reserve 2% objective.
Gold in each CPI release month
Labelled by CPI reference month. The bar shows the XAUUSD monthly return of the following month, when that print was published.
| Month | Headline y/y | Core y/y | Headline m/m | Core m/m | Gold release month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 3.7% | 2.6% | +0.6% | +0.4% | -1.3% |
| Aug 2026 | 3.4% | 2.4% | +0.3% | +0.3% | -6.6% |
| Jul 2026 | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.0% | +0.1% | +10.0% |
| Jun 2026 | 3.5% | 2.6% | -0.3% | 0.0% | +0.9% |
| May 2026 | 4.2% | 2.9% | +0.6% | +0.3% | -11.8% |
| Apr 2026 | 3.8% | 2.8% | +0.9% | +0.4% | -1.7% |
| Mar 2026 | 3.3% | 2.6% | +1.0% | +0.3% | -1.3% |
| Feb 2026 | 2.4% | 2.5% | +0.5% | +0.4% | -11.3% |
| Jan 2026 | 2.4% | 2.5% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +8.5% |
| Dec 2025 | 2.7% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +12.9% |
| Nov 2025 | 2.7% | 2.6% | n/a | n/a | +2.3% |
| Sep 2025 | 3.0% | 3.0% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +3.3% |
Execution around the CPI release
- The first minutes after 08:30 ET often sweep liquidity on both sides. Avoid committing during the initial spike.
- Wait for the release candle range to complete, then look for a body close beyond structure with displacement.
- Prefer entries from a fresh POI formed by the move, with invalidation beyond the swept liquidity.
- Spreads widen around the release. Size for the wider stop, or stand aside. Missing the move is acceptable.
Frequently asked questions
Why does US CPI move gold?
CPI shapes expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Hotter inflation can lift rate expectations and the US dollar, which often pressures gold on the release. Softer inflation tends to do the opposite. Over longer horizons, persistent inflation can support gold as a store of value.
What is the difference between Headline and Core CPI?
Headline CPI includes all items. Core CPI excludes food and energy, which are volatile. Markets and the Federal Reserve usually weight Core more heavily when judging the underlying inflation trend.
When is CPI released?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPI monthly, usually around mid month at 08:30 New York time, covering the prior month.
Should I trade the CPI release directly?
Release candles often sweep liquidity on both sides before direction is clear. A disciplined approach waits for the initial spike to complete, then requires structure, displacement and a defined invalidation before any execution.
Where does this data come from?
CPI index values come from the official BLS public API (CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted). Year over year and month over month changes are computed from those index values. Gold monthly returns come from our XAUUSD monthly history.