Gold Seasonality: XAUUSD Performance by Month
How gold has behaved in each calendar month over the last 10 years. Averages, positive year share, best and worst outcomes, and the current month to date. Historical tendency is context, not a forecast.
10 year monthly heatmap
Average return and share of positive years for every month.
| Month | 10Y avg | 5Y avg | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.54% | +4.40% | 70% | +12.86% | -2.72% |
| February | +0.49% | +2.33% | 50% | +8.48% | -6.95% |
| March | +1.31% | +3.37% | 60% | +9.65% | -11.26% |
| April | +1.59% | +0.97% | 60% | +7.37% | -2.12% |
| May | +0.62% | -0.92% | 40% | +7.80% | -3.11% |
| June | -1.80% | -3.09% | 40% | +7.80% | -11.77% |
| July | +2.09% | +1.21% | 70% | +10.95% | -2.37% |
| August | +2.23% | +2.56% | 50% | +9.98% | -3.08% |
| September | -1.18% | +0.51% | 20% | +11.59% | -6.57% |
| OctoberCURRENT | +1.51% | +2.93% | 60% | +7.28% | -3.10% |
| November | -0.35% | +2.48% | 50% | +8.27% | -8.15% |
| December | +2.43% | +1.78% | 80% | +6.70% | -1.83% |
How to use seasonality on gold
A constructive month only shifts the background. Entries still require structure, displacement and defined invalidation.
A strong average can hide one outlier year. Compare the average with the share of positive years and the worst outcome.
CPI, FOMC and positioning can override any seasonal tendency. Read seasonality next to the COT and CPI tools.
Learn the execution framework in the Smart Money Concepts guide or the Education Library.
What funds, banks and producers did in COMEX gold this week, in plain terms.
Official US inflation readings next to gold's monthly move, with release context.
US payrolls, unemployment and wages next to gold's monthly move.
How XAUUSD performed in each calendar month over the last 10 years.
Frequently asked questions
What is gold seasonality?
Gold seasonality measures how XAUUSD has historically performed in each calendar month. It shows average returns and how often a month closed higher, based on monthly open and close prices.
Is October historically bullish for gold?
Select October in the tool above to see the latest 10 year average, the share of positive years and the best and worst outcomes. Readings update automatically as each month closes.
What is the best month to trade gold?
No month is reliably bullish or bearish. Seasonality describes historical tendency, not a forecast. It works best as background context next to market structure, liquidity and macro events.
Can I trade seasonality alone?
No. A seasonal tendency never defines an entry, stop or target. Execution still requires structure, displacement, liquidity interaction and defined invalidation.
Where does the data come from?
Monthly XAUUSD spot open and close prices from our market data provider, stored in our monthly history and refreshed after each daily close. These are spot market figures, not strategy results.
XAUUSD spot data. Historical tendencies do not guarantee future results and are not strategy performance.