NFP and Gold: US jobs report impact on XAUUSD
Track US nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and wage growth from official data, see whether the labour market is strengthening or softening, and review how gold behaved in each release month.
Latest reference month Sep 2026 · First Friday 08:30 ET · Source: BLS
This report in 30 seconds · Sep 2026
- Hiring
- Employers added only +29K jobs. Hiring is weak.
- 3 month trend
- The 3 month average is +51K per month. One print can mislead, the trend matters more.
- Unemployment
- The unemployment rate is 4.2%, up 0.1 point. The labour market is loosening.
- Wages
- Average hourly earnings grew 3.0% over the year (+0.1% on the month). Firm wage growth feeds inflation concerns.
- What it usually means for gold
- A softening labour market can lower rate expectations and weaken the dollar, a condition that has often supported gold.
- How gold actually moved
- Gold closed the release month down 1.3%. Many drivers act within a month, so this is context, not cause.
Context for bias only. Not a trade signal.
Nonfarm payrolls
+29K
3m avg +51K
Unemployment rate
4.2%
prior 4.1%
Hourly earnings y/y
3.0%
m/m +0.1%
Gold in release month
-1.3%
XAUUSD open to close
Monthly job gains, 3 years
Nonfarm payroll change in thousands. Red bars mark job losses.
Unemployment rate, 3 years
A rising rate signals a loosening labour market.
Gold in each NFP release month
Labelled by report reference month. The bar shows the XAUUSD return of the following month, when that report was published.
| Month | Payrolls | Unemployment | Wages y/y | Wages m/m | Gold release month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | +29K | 4.2% | 3.0% | +0.1% | -1.3% |
| Aug 2026 | +133K | 4.1% | 3.1% | +0.3% | -6.6% |
| Jul 2026 | -10K | 4.1% | 3.2% | +0.1% | +10.0% |
| Jun 2026 | +31K | 4.2% | 3.4% | +0.3% | +0.9% |
| May 2026 | +63K | 4.3% | 3.3% | +0.2% | -11.8% |
| Apr 2026 | +148K | 4.3% | 3.6% | +0.2% | -1.7% |
| Mar 2026 | +214K | 4.3% | 3.4% | +0.2% | -1.3% |
| Feb 2026 | -156K | 4.4% | 3.7% | +0.3% | -11.3% |
| Jan 2026 | +160K | 4.3% | 3.7% | +0.4% | +8.5% |
| Dec 2025 | -17K | 4.4% | 3.7% | +0.1% | +12.9% |
| Nov 2025 | +41K | 4.5% | 3.9% | +0.4% | +2.3% |
| Oct 2025 | -140K | n/a | 3.9% | +0.4% | +5.5% |
Latest values are first estimates and may be revised in the following two reports.
Execution around the NFP release
- The first minutes after 08:30 ET frequently sweep liquidity on both sides. Avoid committing during the initial spike.
- Wait for the release candle range to complete, then look for a body close beyond structure with displacement.
- Prefer entries from a fresh POI formed by the move, with invalidation beyond the swept liquidity.
- Spreads and slippage widen sharply. Size for the wider stop, or stand aside. Missing the move is acceptable.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the NFP report move gold?
The jobs report shapes expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Strong hiring and firm wages can lift rate expectations and the US dollar, which often pressures gold. Weak hiring or rising unemployment tends to do the opposite.
When is the NFP report released?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics usually publishes the Employment Situation report on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 New York time, covering the prior month.
Which part of the report matters most?
Markets react to the surprise versus forecast in nonfarm payrolls first, then to the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Revisions to prior months can change the reading of the headline number.
Should I trade the NFP release directly?
The release candle often sweeps liquidity on both sides within seconds and spreads widen sharply. A disciplined approach waits for the spike to complete, then requires structure, displacement and defined invalidation before any execution.
Where does this data come from?
Payrolls, unemployment and wages come from the official BLS public API (seasonally adjusted series). The monthly payroll change is computed from the payroll level. Gold monthly returns come from our XAUUSD monthly history.