Gold Weekly Outlook: FOMC and Core PCE test the weekly low near 3975.83

Gold closed the prior week at 3995.05, about 19 points above the weekly low of 3975.83 and roughly 88 points below the prior week midpoint of 4082.98. Price is trading in deep discount. Structure was consistently bearish, with each day printing a lower high than the day before (4190.13, 4155.90, 4142.67, 4125.86, 4034.68) and a displacement leg on October 22 that closed near its lows. The weekly low is the nearest sell-side liquidity, and a lot of resting stops may sit just beneath it. Monday opens with the market positioned to engage that pool early if Asia and London continue the downside drift.

The calendar is light on Monday and Tuesday, so the first two sessions are likely to be driven by liquidity and structure rather than data. The main event is the FOMC decision on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC, with a forecast of 4.00% against a previous 4.00%, followed by the press conference at 18:30 UTC. A hold is the expected outcome, so tone and guidance on the path of rates may matter more than the decision itself. A firmer tone could support real yields and the dollar, which has tended to pressure gold. A softer tone could ease that pressure and allow a corrective move back toward the midpoint. Both outcomes are conditional, and the late New York timing means liquidity may be thinner when the statement lands.

On Thursday at 12:30 UTC, Advance GDP is forecast at 3.2% against 1.5% previously, and Core PCE m/m at 0.3% against 0.2%. Both land at the New York open. Core PCE is the inflation gauge in focus, and a print above forecast would add to the case for tighter policy for longer. A print in line or below could take some pressure off rate expectations. Readers following US CPI and gold will recognise the pattern, where inflation surprises tend to move real yields first and gold second. A strong GDP print alongside a hot Core PCE would be the more restrictive combination for gold, while the opposite mix would be less so. No inflation print from the prior week is available in the data, so these releases are the main inflation read for the week.

The latest Gold COT report (as of October 20) shows managed money net long at 104,206 contracts, down 2,883 on the week. Longs fell by 3,777 and shorts fell by 894. This is the fourth consecutive week of net reduction, and the 3 year index sits at 53, near the middle of its range. In plain terms, speculative investors have been trimming exposure steadily but remain clearly net long, and positioning is neither stretched nor washed out. Further long liquidation could add fuel if the weekly low breaks, while the mid-range reading leaves room in either direction. Positioning is context only and not a timing signal. On the retail side, the Gold retail sentiment tracker shows where the crowd's stops are likely to cluster, which matters this week because the weekly low is the nearest sell-side pool. Friday carries no scheduled catalyst, so month-end flows and positioning adjustments may shape the close. For broader context, gold seasonality shows how late October has historically behaved as the market transitions into the final quarter, which is useful background when weighing a corrective bounce against continuation.

The key liquidity pools are as follows. Above price, buy-side liquidity sits at 4034.68 (Friday high), 4082.98 (prior week midpoint and the premium and discount divide), 4125.86 (October 22 high), 4155.90 (October 20 high) and 4190.13 (prior week high). Below price, sell-side liquidity sits at 3975.83 (prior week low and Friday New York session low) and 4020.47 (October 22 low), which was already taken on Friday. Friday's Asia low at 3987.72 is a minor intraday pool just above the weekly low.

Price is in discount, so rallies into the midpoint are the first test of whether sellers remain in control. Sweeps of session highs and lows during London (07:00 UTC) and the New York open (12:00 to 13:00 UTC) are the most likely moments for liquidity to be engaged. See the Gold trading strategy page for how these levels fit into a wider framework.

Event risk is concentrated in two windows. The FOMC statement at 18:00 UTC and the press conference at 18:30 UTC on Wednesday fall in the late New York session, when liquidity is thinner and spreads may widen, so reactions can overshoot and reverse. On Thursday, GDP and Core PCE both release at 12:30 UTC, right inside the New York open, which can combine data volatility with the usual session liquidity grab. Price sits close to the weekly low, so stop runs through 3975.83 may be sharp. Monday and Tuesday have no scheduled releases, which can mean quieter ranges in Asia and a London session that sets the direction. Content here is for research and education and is not investment advice.

Gold opened the week at 4183.69 and closed at 3995.05, a decline of about 189 points inside a 214 point range between 4190.13 and 3975.83. No key inflation release is recorded for the prior week, so there is no print or 60 minute reaction to report. Price was driven by structure and liquidity, with a steady sequence of lower highs through the week.

The strongest day was Thursday, October 22, with a range of 105.39 points. Price opened at 4125.78, sold through the Asia and London lows and displaced in New York to 4020.47. Friday extended the move into the weekly low at 3975.83 during the New York session. The desk took one trade during the week, which was a loss, for a net result of -1R.

The desk also carried the open OSAS-01 strategic swing short from 4141.78 through the entire decline. The position reached its first target at 4022.46 on October 22, where half was closed for +1.70R and the stop moved to the entry price, leaving the remainder open toward 3931.22 at zero risk. The full read behind that entry, taken while retail positioning leaned heavily long, is documented in the gold swing trading case study.